CO129-561-10 Estimates 1938 2-9-1937 - 23-9-1938 — Page 4

4

a tout 10%

-hour 70%

abrut

20

Ens

Fich

on the other hand, Ka present emerge cy seems we cearly the

not mutable time

t

for utilising surplus fund, rathe

objection to this in principle, but I suggest that

it might be considered whether it would not be better

now the

to raise e loan which will eventually be necessary

rather than wait till a later date. The Crown

Agents might be consulted on this point.

(2) The second factor affecting these

Estimates is the Sino-Japanese conflict and its

possible effect on Hong Kong trade. The 0.A.G. states

that it is not thought that these disturbances will in

the immediate future have any seriously adverse

influence on the revenue of the Colony. But whatever

their immediate effect, I suggest that they can in the

long run hardly fail to affect adversely a very

considerable proportion of the Hong Kong customs

revenue and trade generally. of the three categories

of Hong Kong trade, that between Chinese ports which

passes through Hong Kong will probably be very

adversely affected by the present dispute.

X

Trade

between China and foreign countries may also be

expected to suffer, though it is improbable that it

will be subject to the same direct interference from

Japanese ships of war as the coastal trade. The

entrepôt trade between countries other than China,

which passes through Hong Kong and which forms a

large part of Hong Kong trade, may not be greatly

affected. I suggest, therefore, that we must

anticipate that by 1938 these disturbances, whatever

their course, will have an adverse effect on Hong Kong

revenue.

I therefore suggest that we might telegraph

to the 0.A.G. saying that at present the S. of S.

has add to the ander desires to raise no objection to the proposals and

от самить не

additional takatias

agrees